Why relocate into climate danger?

Lots of people are doing it

Sep 22, 2023

Buddy had his doubts during our cross-country move. We could almost hear him thinking “All this for climate safety?”

Hilary, Buddy, and I moved last year from an Eastern city in the crosshairs of climate change, to a small Western town with much lower climate risks.

We thought we’d beat the rush, buy a home in a climate-proof hometown before other arrivals started pushing up property prices. And for many families, there’s a mirror reason to have made that move: climate risks are pushing property prices down in their former, threatened hometown.

Nationally, property prices are currently overvalued by between $121 billion and $237 billion, when compared to their actual flood risk. The current prices mask the true danger that these properties are exposed to, because of factors such as outdated FEMA flood maps, incentives in the National Flood Insurance Program, and home buyers who lack climate change information.
The pattern of the vast overvaluation of at-risk properties in the Lower 48 states reveals hot spots of risk.
Coastal areas show high amounts of overvaluation.
Spikes also show up in West Virginia and other parts of Appalachia.
In Texas the biggest cities, including Houston and Dallas, have a significant amount of overvaluation.
Florida tops the list, accounting for about $50.2 billion overvaluation based on the actual threat to properties. [Axios]

So what happened? Why haven’t home prices haven’t risen in many climate-safe towns? Despite the torrent of bad climate news across the country, why are so few families moving to them? Why aren’t people leaving the Gulf Coast for the Great Lakes? Or at least making sure their kids settle somewhere safe.

The old reasons

I’ve tried to understand this. Those who aren’t considering moving to a safer hometown, or who are maybe thinking of just a short move within the same danger area, must have good reasons.

For one, relocating is hard. Moving house, even a short distance, means leaving jobs, schools, and community or social commitments, not to mention friends and family. Just the prospect of choosing a reliable moving company is daunting.
And moving farther away, to a safer climate, can mean moving into a different social climate. Our new neighbors may have different politics, different values.
And when I’m cynical, I think it’s mostly denial and ignorance. If a family can’t understand the causes of climate change, maybe they can’t understand its effects on their finances?

Where are Americans moving to?

It’s natural to think that the storm and flood threats to Houston and Charleston, the wildfire dangers in California and Idaho, and the unbelievable heat in Phoenix will cause lots of residents in those areas to pick up and move to climate-proof towns. But apparently no, that isn’t happening yet. A 2022-23 survey shows the most popular state people moved to was . . . Florida! Migration data shows more people are moving to cities such as Austin, Raleigh, and Orlando than cooler, safer cities across the country.

The new little-noticed reasons

If we just look generally at the effects of climate change, relocating from Corpus Cristi or Orlando to Buffalo or Duluth seems to make a lot of sense. But a newer, closer view shows there are other little-noticed effects of climate change that work in the opposite direction, keeping America’s threatened cities attractive.

First, living costs. Heat, property dangers health threats, and other climate effects can help keep housing costs down. As climate change continues to damage those southern areas, home prices will probably continue to drop, keeping them attractive for many Americans.
Second, jobs. Coastal cities are going to need people to build flood barriers, better drainage, new water sources, fire breaks and other protections that will be funded by all the state and federal money that should be coming soon for such construction work. Professionals will be needed, yes, but also lots of support labor, both green- and blue- collared, will be required for massive projects. Think engineering, construction, science, research, education, masonry, landscaping, planning, utility operation jobs and the community services needed to support those workers.

What we can do

For those who, like me, want to live away from serious climate risks - and for whom living costs, jobs, schools, etc. are no longer critical factors - we should make sure we think mobile. Get comfortable with the concept of relocating. Especially, help our kids get comfortable with the idea. And remember, with the ability to relocate, it’s okay to live in an endangered town. But we should rent our home, not buy.

And maybe we should stop expecting to see the geographic shifts in population, property values, and economic activity that Buddy’s and my narrow safe-versus-endangered thinking has been projecting since we started ClimateDog.