How to see farther ahead

And what to look for

Dec 30, 2022

To tell the truth, Buddy was usually focused on the present. But sometimes he would join others in looking far ahead.

Humans naturally find it hard to look ahead. I often think of Robert Frost’s admonition.

The people along the sand
All turn and look one way.
They turn their back on the land.
They look at the sea all day.

They cannot look out far.
They cannot look in deep.
But when was that ever a bar
To any watch they keep?

These days, not only are most Americans not looking out far; heck, they’re not really looking.

Right. Like if you want to not fill a room, talk about climate, or if you want to not have anyone listen to your story, talk about climate. [Molly Wood, How We Survive]

That’s been true for decades . . . but the news coming at us today is a little more hopeful, more engaging. And there’s been an explosion of studies pinpointing the various risks of climate change, location by location. Maybe we’ll actually want to look at our family’s specific climate-changed life ahead. What choices are we going to face about our lives—about our surroundings, our finances, our health and safety—at important moments?

How about identifying some of those important moments—with specific dates—then do a little work to envision them? Here’s an example.

2027 - OUR CHILD OR GRANDCHILD CHOOSES A COLLEGE
She or he is not just choosing where they’ll get an education; for many, choosing a college is unknowingly choosing where they’ll live their life.

61% of college students plan on staying put and finding a job close to where they attended college. [Tallo]

That location may have good schools, but is it also relatively climate-proof with good economic and job prospects? Before a college decision, look out far! We’ll see that

Climate risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large future transfer of value northward and westward. [Science journal]

This Science study looks at future climate-driven economic change. Effects range county by county from damage of 28% to local GDP to boosts of 13%!

2029 - THAT CHILD CHOOSES A MAJOR
Some careers are dwindling, some exploding, thanks to climate change. Look out far!

Growth is expected in a range of climate-boosted occupations, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. [Yale Climate Connections]

It’s okay if you don’t want to be an electrician. Nine million other climatetech job openings are predicted. [A million electricians]

2031 - GRADUATING AND CHOOSING WHERE TO START REAL LIFE
Not everywhere is going to be healthy. Climate change is making some parts of the country dangerous for those with asthma and other medical issues. Look in deep!

Climate change influences human health and disease in numerous ways. Some existing health threats will intensify and new health threats will emerge [The CDC: Preparing for the Regional Health Impacts of climate change]

And there are lots of other local climate-driven physical and economic risks out there.

Carbon emissions are directly linked to increased asthma rates and allergies in cities across the country. [The Top 10 Sneeziest and Wheeziest cities in the United States]

2032 - OUR EMPTY NEST MOMENT
Is our dream of moving away from schools and playing fields to an artists colony or a big city or a beach or a mountain still a great idea? Look out far!

By 2050, an estimated 4.3 million acres — an area nearly the size of Connecticut — will be underwater, including $35 billion worth of real estate. Higher flood waters will reach further inland, flooding properties and buildings that have never flooded before,” [Scientific American]

2047 - A RETIREMENT PARTY
Climate change is raising worries about seniors’ income and savings. It’s complicated, and there are lots of predictions and worries floating around, many contained in the US Dept. of Labor’s recent request for public suggestions on how to

focus on agency actions that can be taken under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act to protect the life savings and pensions of U.S. workers and families from the threats of climate-related financial risk. [Employee Benefits Security Administration]

In addition to protecting our retirement savings, there are also decisions to be made that involve the value of the biggest retirement asset for most of us, our home.

The data show that increased tidal flooding driven by sea level rise has invisibly eroded $15.9 billion in relative property values [floodable vs non-floodable properties] between 2005 and 2017. [First Street Foundation]

WHAT WE CAN DO
Each of us can list many other major decisions ahead in our life—and research the risks and rewards from climate change and other factors. To help us visualize the good and bad decisions we could make in the future:

Examine the rush of detailed scenarios being published by think tanks, government departments, and academic researchers.
Read some cli-fi stories.
Linger on the news coverage of current disasters, physical and economic, attributed to climate change.
Talk to kids! Being 30 may be unimaginable to most teenagers but, emotionally, they can see the future more clearly than adults. Buddy’s and my very first ClimateDog letter, 14 months ago, describes the growing climate angst among children and how it should spur the complacent or unaware people that surround them into creating protections.
Get a cheap pair of driving glasses—those orange tinted shades that help us see dangers down the road. No need to use them. If we just hang them where we’ll see them while reading or computing—we may feel a frequent prod to look ahead.

NEW DECADE’S RESOLUTIONS

“Every one of us will love someone who is still alive in 2100. That loved one will either face a world in climate chaos or a clean, green utopia, depending on what we do today.” [Climate campaigner Ayisha Siddiqa]

New Year’s resolutions usually look out twelve months . . . but we can’t remember them in April. January gym memberships get suspended by March. By August we weigh a little more, do less of what we vowed to do, and still haven’t started that big new project.

Maybe using dates like 2029 or 2041 in our resolutions will help us retain our resolve.